01 / Understanding numbers
Spending Went Up. Cost Per Person Went Down.
A bigger budget does not automatically mean a more expensive service.
Watch & read →THE CIVIC TOOLKIT
Better questions.
Clearer public decisions.
25 original video explainers about the numbers, evidence, and tradeoffs behind public claims. Each includes a worked example, limitations, and an exercise you can use.
02 / Understanding numbers
Up 5 Percent—or 5 Percentage Points?
These two phrases can describe very different changes.
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03 / Understanding numbers
Inflation Slowed. Why Is the Bill Still Higher?
Slower inflation does not mean that prices have returned to where they started.
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04 / Understanding numbers
A Pay Raise Can Still Buy Less
The number on a paycheck and what it buys are different measures.
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05 / Understanding numbers
The Number Missing From an Unemployment Headline
An unemployment rate needs a denominator to make sense.
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06 / Understanding numbers
One Huge Number Can Move the Average
The average can change even when most people see no change.
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07 / Understanding numbers
This Chart Trick Makes Small Changes Look Huge
Before reacting to a bar chart, look at where its axis begins.
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08 / Understanding numbers
A Trend Can Flip When You Change the Start Date
Two charts can tell opposite stories using the same sequence.
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09 / Evidence & discussion
Two Things Rose Together. Did One Cause the Other?
A matching pattern is a starting point for investigation, not the finish line.
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10 / Evidence & discussion
A Million Votes Can Still Be a Bad Poll
A huge response count does not fix the wrong sampling process.
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11 / Understanding numbers
Two Complaints Became Four. Is That a Crisis?
A doubling can be important, but the starting count changes how we interpret it.
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12 / Understanding numbers
The National Average Is Not Your Neighborhood
A broad average can be useful without describing every local experience.
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13 / Evidence & discussion
One-Year and Five-Year Data Aren’t the Same Snapshot
A date on a table can hide the period that the estimate represents.
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14 / Evaluating results
A Forecast Is Not Money Already Spent
A proposal, an estimate, and an actual payment are different things.
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15 / Evaluating results
More Activity Does Not Always Mean Better Results
Counting work is easier than proving that it helped.
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16 / Evaluating results
What Would Have Happened Without the Program?
A before-and-after improvement does not answer the whole evaluation question.
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17 / Evaluating results
Try It Small—But Decide What Success Means First
A pilot project is more useful when its test is defined before the launch.
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18 / Evaluating results
What Does This Choice Push Out of the Budget?
A proposal can be useful and still carry an opportunity cost.
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19 / Evaluating results
A Backlog Fell. Did Service Actually Improve?
A shrinking queue sounds good, but ask how it shrank.
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20 / Evaluating results
The Cheapest Bid Can Cost More Later
The purchase price is only one part of a long-lived project.
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21 / Evidence & discussion
Before Calling It Waste, Ask What the Audit Found
A troubling number deserves a careful label.
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22 / Evaluating results
A Bus Route’s Cost Depends on Which Question You Ask
Cost per trip can change without a change in the operating budget.
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23 / Understanding numbers
A Big Number Means Little Without Its Unit
One missing unit can break an entire comparison.
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24 / Evidence & discussion
Can You Trace That Headline Back to the Evidence?
A screenshot of a headline is not the underlying evidence.
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25 / Evidence & discussion
One Question That Makes a Policy Debate More Useful
Ask: what evidence would change your mind?
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